APC IN THE CENTER, PDP IN THE COASTS (WHAT IF?)

It’s really hard to predict the winner of the forth coming presidential elections in Nigeria.  The contest is surely going to be a tight one. Bearing in mind that a winner will not be declared simply by obtaining the highest votes cast, observers and the electorates might seriously anticipate a re-run.

Since the inception of democracy in Nigeria in 1999, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has held Nigeria’s center - the presidency- while the major opposition party the APC (through its numerous metamorphosis, name changes and mergers) has held the State of Lagos.

Lagos, a major hub in Nigeria and the wider Africa, being the commercial and financial center of the country has enabled the opposition to be relevant. At a huge price though! However, the table might just turn around. The APC presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari seems to be commanding a huge supporter base to the point that observers believe there might be a tie in the votes.

 If a re-run happens, Buhari might have more chances of winning; sympathy being swayed towards his ability to garner much votes against an incumbent. It might be a signal to the PDP supporters or those sitting on the fence that the change wave is in fact real.

Like Lagos, Nigeria’s other major states such as Cross River (holding the city of Port Harcourt) is also being controlled by the APC (although it was a former PDP state) Ironic to the events at the center, Lagos seems set for a real contest against the PDP (for the first time since 1999) The ruling APC has done a fabulous job in Lagos through its Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola. 

While his achievements are very laudable (especially among the literate and the organized sectors) it has not gone down well with some of the masses, the pedestrians, the hawkers, the bus drivers the commercial bike riders (known as Okada) and the market women; who to a large extent benefits and profits from the chaos and lawlessness which this government has tamed. They want a change in government and are hopeful that PDP takes over.

It’s noteworthy to say that these classes of people constitute a larger part of the state’s inhabitants and thus holds a large portion of the votes to be cast. In addition, the PDP candidate in Lagos seems to be enjoying a surprising level of support from other stakeholder in the state as well. Within the APC in Lagos - despite all rhetoric - all may not be well. As some party faithful are still nursing the grievance of a supposed imposition of a candidate in the recent governorship primaries. 

Thus the forth coming governorship election in Lagos is going to be a real contest as well. In Rivers State, a violent PDP machinery seems bent on using all means to win the election against the ruling APC.

While the results of all these elections cannot be known until they are held, if the table turns around, that the center goes to the APC and the critical coasts of Lagos and Rivers States goes to the PDP, it might provide a good balance of power and a reminder too (to both sides) that situations can switch. The best part will be letting each other get a real feel of what it means to be on the other side.