Nigerians have a short memory. A very shot one! If you
are in doubt revisit the press and social media activities of this time four
year ago and 2007 too. You would really wonder were the memory of a nation is.
The forth coming polls in Nigeria, scheduled for March
28 2015 is a real contest, no one can accurately predict a winner and this is
the first time polls and voting sentiments have approached anywhere near
balance or equality. Political alliances
have also gone above and beyond tribal allegiances.
However, given the antecedents of this country, as
enunciated by political scientist who understand it well, any party that wins
the presidential polls will surely have an edge against the losers in the subsequent
gubernatorial elections.
This is even more true for the opposition party APC,
that has managed to give the ruling PDP a real pre-election challenge. While the APC is a party with major concentration
of its supporter in Western and Northern Nigeria; it has managed to whip up
enough sentiments throughout the country (including PDP controlled states)
through its change mantra. Voters who
are sitting on the offence and some PDP supporter will be swayed by an APC
victory (if it happens)
Even more possible is the continued demonstration of little
political ideology by Nigerian politicians, who see state resources as sources
of personal enrichment. For this group, leadership and political positions are
ways to make money and thus, one must pitch its tent with any party in power.
Once a winner emerges for the presidential polls,
voters’ and politicians’ allegiances are expected to change sharply. This is predicted
to happen more in the South-East were PDP is still a household name.
Most of the present day members and
leaders of the APC are former stalwarts in PDP, who left due to personal grievances
rather a shift in the party’s ideology. PDP is accused of not being progressive and
this is true. It has not evolved much or changed its direction since it came
into power in 1999.
Nevertheless it has made huge impacts in
moving Nigeria forward from its piteous state in 1999. The presidential polls
and its results might as well serve as a censor and meter of the preferences and
larger political choices of the country. There will be little time for gubernatorial
candidates to directly sway the wishes and allegiance of the people but the
immediate events in the political space will offer voters a lead.
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