OBASANJO, SHREWD DIPLOMACY AND THE OUTCOME OF 2015 ELECTIONS

FORMER PRESIDENT OBASANJO

President Olusegun Obasanjo’s political trajectory is an unusual one.  The pattern is not quite common. He came into power as a soldier to replace a dead Head of State Gen. Murtala  Muhammed.

He subsequently handed power to a civilian leader, to the applause of many (a good example of leaving the stage when the ovation is loudest) His life has been quite an eventful one ever since, culminating in a prison term and an eight (8) year tenure as the President of Nigeria.  This was a nation returning from decades of harsh dictatorship and which still harbored an army, whose soldiers comprised of friends and foes of the new president alike.  

Haven taken charge in 1999, Obasanjo would quickly move to re-affirm his power through some military-styled, power flexing presidential moves. At the same time, he posed as a perfect democrat, opening up Nigeria to foreigners and touring the world to mend fences and create new allies.

Away from his past is the more important issue of his current political posture. Within the political drum of oil currently steaming in Nigeria, Obasnajo cannot be left out of view.

It can be said that in spite of his avowed criticism of President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP, which he co-founded) Baba, as he is fondly called is largely siting on the fence. 

While his recent utterances might suggest an alliance with the opposition APC, it’s also a confusing and misleading set of signals.

What is currently known, however is that he has not openly aligned with the APC, whose mantra and wind of change seems to be gaining unexpected momentum. Observers have pointed out that the chances of victory for APC is increasing every day, even 6 days to voting.

IS THERE A DESK FOR OBJ IN A VICTORIOUS APC?

While he continues to pour his vituperation on President Jonathan, he has not fully or openly aligned with the APC (perhaps, not at the stage). He has clearly defined his enemies without listing his allies. Obasanjo has demonstrated and applied his excellent intuition -which is a mark of a great leader -severally in his political career. 

The group of people leading the opposition APC, including Gen. Buhari have not been Obasanjo’s best friends. 

TINUBU & OBASANJO

Mr. Tinubu the APC leader was Obasanjo’s nightmare as an opposition governor of Lagos State, during Obasanjo’s eight years in office. This is also the case with most of the founding stakeholders of the opposition.  The remaining members of APC are new arrivals from PDP, most of whom left due to party and personal issues with Obasanjo or those that succeeded him namely; Yar’ Adua and Jonathan. Vice President Atiku Abubakar is an example of someone in this later group.

Gen. Buhari may not be Obasnajo’s choice of a replacement as he reportedly made some not-so-favorable statement about Gen. Buhari in his recent book; My Watch. With these set of people controlling the wheel that drives APC, Obasanjo’s intuition must have advised him right. Hence his shrewd approach in demonstrating support in a heated polity.

   

If after the election, there is an APC led government at the center, the former president might have little strings to pull in the entire political landscape. 

But he does have opportunities to build relationships, mend fences and access some level of control – since he didn't in fact work against the APC. This might be the very reason for his posture; refusing to form a clear alliance until the ship anchors in a safe harbor.